Recently couple of studies were done about the population, carbon emission and gross domestic product data from 152 countries accounting for 98.7 of the world’s population as of 2015 over the past 50 years to develop a new statistical model, said Raftery, a professor of statistics and sociology at the University of Washington. Many studies come from the Intergovernmental Panel on weather change and use weather model scenarios – not forecasts – to use as examples of what may happen, depending on particular assumptions about economics, population and carbon emissions at some point. “This leaves open the question of how probably they’re, or if they cover the range of possibilities,” Raftery said. “In contrast, our results are statistically established and probabilistic, in that they aim to cover the range of probably outcomes.”
What Raftery and his colleagues discovered is that population isn’t a factor. “This is caused by the fact that most of the projected future population growth will be in Africa, in countries whose carbon emissions are now low,” Raftery said. The study confirms conclusions of many other studies, said Bill Hare, director and senior scientists of nonprofit weather Analytics. Hare wasn’t affiliated with either study.
Where weather change is threatening the health of Americans “This interesting paper confirms the conclusion about where the world is headed unless there’s a big increase in the ambition of weather and energy policies,” Hare said. The other finding of the study suggests that attaining an objective of less than 1.5 Celsius warming could require carbon intensity to decline faster than it has in the past. “The whole function of weather and energy policy is to speed up decarbonisation and this will essentially be faster than what we have seen globally,” Hare said. Mauritsen, author of the second study and weather researcher at Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, also shared thoughts on Raftery’s results. “It looks interesting in that it uses an economic statistical model that accounts for an rising energy efficiency as societies develop,” Mauritsen said. “It shows that the 1.5 to two degrees targets won’t be met without extra mitigation, and suggests that a concentrate on energy efficiency is the best way forward.”