By 2100, Earth’s average temperature could rise more than two degrees Celsius, or 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit. Two unique studies forecast this, each employing different methods. Both studies were published in the Nature Climate Change journal on a Monday. One study used statistical data to show a 95% likelihood of Earth’s temperature rising more than two degrees Celsius by 2100. The odds of it being less than 1.5 C are slim, standing at 1%. “We expect global temperatures to rise between 2.0-4.9, with a median prediction of 3.2 C,” said Adrian Raftery, the first study’s author. “Our model is based on existing data that accounts for current efforts to reduce emissions. To achieve less than 1.5 C warming, we would need to reduce carbon emissions much quicker than in the recent past.”
The second study explored past greenhouse gas emissions and fossil fuel burning. This research shows that even if we stopped burning fossil fuels right now, Earth would still heat up about two more degrees by 2100. The study also suggests that if emissions continue for another 15 years, which is more likely than a sudden halt, Earth’s average temperature could rise by up to three degrees. “If we stopped burning fossil fuels today, Earth would continue to warm slowly,” said Thorsten Mauritsen, the second study’s author. “That’s the warming we’ve committed to and what we estimate.” Combined, these similar results portray a worrying picture. “Studies like these enhance our scientific understanding that we’re facing more heat than we initially thought,” said Bill McKibben, an independent environmentalist. “We’ve already travelled far down the road to devastating global warming, and the policy response, especially in the US, has been woefully insufficient.”
“It’s clear that the US’s departure from the Paris Agreement could make achieving the two C or 1.5 C targets even more difficult,” stated Raftery. The 2016 Paris Agreement set the two-degree mark, which is equivalent to a rise of 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit in global temperature. Yale economist William Nordhaus first suggested this threshold in 1977. The climate has been warming since the late 1800s, with the start of the Industrial Revolution and the increased burning of fossil fuels, according to researchers. Scientists warn that exceeding this mark could drastically change life on our planet. They predict rising sea levels, increased extinction rates, severe droughts, more wildfires, more intense hurricanes, reduced crop yield, water scarcity, and the melting of the Arctic. The impact on human health could be significant. The Medical Society Consortium on Climate and Health’s recent report indicates that warmer temperatures and shifting weather patterns could lead to poorer air quality, food and water contamination, more diseases spread by mosquitoes and ticks, and mental health stress.
The World Health Organization (WHO) currently estimates that pollution, extreme weather, and climate-related diseases cause 12.6 million global deaths annually. The WHO predicts that climate change will cause an additional 250,000 global deaths each year between 2030 and 2050.